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China

Dispatches From the Future (January 2, 2027): The Return Of Nasdog

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day).

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Key Views 2026: EM, China, And Commodities
Special Report

Risk assets in EM/China and cyclical commodities will sell off in H1 2026. A shift toward aggressive policy stimulus in China and a clear improvement in global manufacturing are needed to produce durable rallies in EM/China risk assets and the prices of energy and industrial metals.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy, Commodity & Energy Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan, Jing Sima, Roukaya Ibrahim
China: Distorted Export Gains Mask Weak Demand
Maintain a defensive commodity stance as China’s export strength reflects distortions, not a global trade upturn. Chinese November exports beat estimates, rising 5.9% y/y in USD terms (5.7% in CNY), while imports rose less than 2%. China’s goods trade surplus…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
China: Expect CNY Appreciation Despite Near-Term FX Management
Expect CNY appreciation toward 6.5-6.8 over the next 12 months as structural supports outweigh near-term FX management. China set a significantly weaker-than-expected fixing, its largest weak-side deviation since February 2022. State banks also reportedly…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
China: Weak PMIs Highlight Need For More Policy Support
Stay constructive on onshore Chinese bonds as weak PMIs and deflationary pressures point to further stimulus. China’s PMIs continue to signal sluggish growth with little momentum. The official NBS composite PMI slipped to 49.7 from 50.0, indicating…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
China Is Using Hong Kong To Manage The RMB
China is increasingly using Hong Kong as a vehicle to manage the RMB and limit currency appreciation. Our Chart of the Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist Developed Market ex-US. Mathieu shows that, despite narratives of declining Chinese…
Daily Insights by Mathieu Savary
China HFI Chartbook: Broadening Weakness Raises The Stakes For Beijing’s Next Move

China’s economy is weakening across the board as global risk-off hits equities. With housing conditions worsening and exports contracting—a perfect storm—Beijing faces mounting pressure to deliver stronger, housing-focused stimulus.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
China’s Housing Blues: What’s Next?
Our China strategists remain bearish on property sector stocks as cyclical and structural headwinds persist, but see long-term opportunities emerging in China’s shift toward a “new housing market.” Home sales and prices have yet to stabilize, and Beijing’s…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
China’s Housing Blues: What’s Next?

This report revisits China’s property market through both cyclical and structural lenses, assesses the likely policy responses, and evaluates their investment implications.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
China: Incrementalism Hits Its Limit
China’s economy is weakening again, with successive mini cycles revealing the limits of incremental policy easing. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jing Sima, Chief China Investment Strategist. Economic data released by the NBS Friday point to renewed and…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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