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Fixed Income

Indonesia’s Policy Trap
Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 50 bps to 5.25% last week, 25 bps above expectations, as a response to persistent rupiah weakness. The recent sell-off in the rupiah and local bonds was partly triggered by the finance minister's plan to spend an…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
Bunds Over Treasuries
Go long German 10-year Bunds versus US 10-year Treasuries as US resilience diverges from euro area weakness. The trade is backed by a widening growth gap, with the US better insulated from rising oil prices and the euro area losing momentum. The US…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
The Complex Wisdom Of Crowds
Markets become vulnerable when the wisdom of crowds gives way to the madness of crowds, creating exploitable opportunities for active managers. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Dhaval Joshi, Chief Counterpoint Strategist. Dhaval examines what makes markets…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Downgrading Global (& US) Duration

Downgrade global and US portfolio duration from “above benchmark” to “at benchmark” as the risk of hawkish monetary policy surprises is rising.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, US Bond Strategy by Robert Timper, Ryan Swift
Back To The Upside Down?
The Iran war has made inflation the market’s main focus again, creating a backdrop where resilient data could hurt equities. Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored, but the near-term inflation path is still uncertain. Markets are still trying to…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Diverging Frontiers
Our EM strategists see divergence across frontier markets. They favor Kenyan, Kazakh, and Sri Lankan equities within frontier market portfolios. For sovereign credit, they recommend overweights in Kazakhstan and Sri Lanka, and an underweight in…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Eurobonds And The Internationalization Of The Euro
Our DM ex-US strategists make the case for the Eurobond as a structural necessity. The ECB has expanded EUREP (its global euro liquidity facility) to lay the groundwork for currency internationalization, but liquidity infrastructure without a deep pool of…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
How The Madness Of Crowds Offers Recurring Investment Opportunities
Special Report

A market becomes inefficient, illiquid, and vulnerable to a phase transition when the ‘wisdom of crowds’ switches to the ‘madness of crowds.’ This switch from market wisdom to market madness may be the most significant recurring behavioural opportunity in active fund management and can be exploited in real-time by measuring the market’s complexity.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Europe’s Missing Safe Asset: Eurobonds And The Internationalisation Of The Euro
Special Report

The dollar's retreat is creating the most compelling window for euro internationalisation since Maastricht, but Europe is missing the one instrument that would make it real. In this report, we make the case for the Eurobond, assess which model is most likely to prevail, and explain why the trade is long euro on dips and overweight Central and Eastern European sovereign spreads.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, European Investment Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Hot Enough To Hike?

The April CPI report showed clear evidence of the direct effect of higher oil prices on inflation but, so far, limited evidence of passthrough to core.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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