Strategy Report
Narratives Versus Reality
The global search for yield, not an improvement in EM fundamentals, has been driving the EM rally. EM/China growth conditions have stabilized but not recovered. Barring a full-fledged cyclical profit upsurge in EM EPS, EM stocks are not cheap at all. EM/China final demand for commodities will disappoint and will likely produce a major reversal in EM risk assets.
BCA Research | Emerging Markets Strategy
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
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