Developed Countries
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy team evaluated the impact of president-elect Trump’s policies on commodity markets. Trump’s energy policies, while promoting increased domestic oil production, are unlikely to drive immediate growth in US crude output.…
European monetary data printed in line with expectations in October, with M3 growing 3.4% y/y vs. 3.2% in September. Growth in private sector lending was unchanged at 1.2% y/y despite the recent easing in lending standards. We expect the credit impulse to…
Investors focused on the flurry of cabinet nominations in the aftermath of the US election, but the US does not have a monopoly on political drama. France is going through turmoil of its own. This summer’s snap election left France’s government weakened,…
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of 0.3% m/m in October, and accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% in September. Inflation rose on the back of hot inputs from the PPI report, which is not expected to last. The market-based core…
Consumer confidence came in as expected in November, with The Conference Board’s index rising to 111.7 from 108.7 in October, a level not seen since August 2023. Both the assessment of consumers’ present and future situation drove the increase. The…
President-elect Trump jolted markets Monday night by declaring that tariffs will be implemented on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. The US dollar strengthened while stocks fell, as did Treasury yields. Equities, however, recovered on Tuesday, as a…
European assets and the euro have become oversold and are likely to rebound. Will this move be nothing more than a dead cat bounce leading to more weakness?
We used last Friday’s BCA Live & Unfiltered Meeting to assess our views on the US dollar after its recent bull run. While technical indicators may show short-term exhaustion, and Scott Bessent’s nomination for Treasury Secretary put a lid on recent dollar…
The November Ifo Business Climate index for Germany missed expectations, falling to 85.7 from 86.5 in October. Both subcomponents decreased, with the Current Assessment sliding 1.4 points to 84.3 and Expectations essentially flat at 87.2. The data confirm…
Our US Investment Strategy team analyzed recent US consumer trends through the lens of major retailers’ earnings calls, which highlighted increasingly prudent spending. Consumer caution is apparent in these earnings calls as pandemic-era savings fade, and…