Currencies

Foreign exchange markets are shaped by a wide range of macro influences. The sheer breadth of relevant information makes systematically assessing where a currency stands at any point in time a challenging analytical task. We introduce an FX scorecard that condenses the full range of data into nine thematic scores, providing a clear visual snapshot of a currency's position and how it's evolving.

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, counterbalanced by a slight overweight to bonds, and a significant overweight to cash. The model is positive on the US dollar, modestly negative on gold, and bullish on copper and oil.

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, and favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios. The model is very positive on the US dollar, neutral on gold, constructive on copper, and very bullish on oil.

Goldilocks, with fault lines underneath. Our first joint FICC outlook lays out where growth, inflation, and policy are headed this quarter and where the calm could crack.

The dollar is not being replaced by a single rival, it is being diluted by a rising cast of “other” reserve currencies. This report identifies the hidden winners of reserve diversification and why they may matter more than investors think.