Inflation
June inflation prints came in softer than expected across most major eurozone economies, reinforcing the case against further ECB tightening. Inflation undershot consensus in Germany, France, and Italy, while Spain was slightly above forecast but unchanged;…
The June Tokyo CPI came in hotter than consensus, pointing to rising price pressures and further policy tightening. The headline index rose to 1.7% y/y from 1.4%. Core measures were also hot, with CPI ex-fresh food rising to 1.6% from 1.3%, and “core core”…
The May Personal Income and Outlays report beat estimates, showing firmer consumer momentum but still-sticky inflation. Both nominal and real spending beat estimates, rising 0.7% m/m and 0.3%, respectively. Personal income was also strong at 0.7%, while real…
Australia's May data came in firmer than expected, but the RBA will stay on hold. Headline inflation eased to 4% y/y (-0.7% m/m) from 4.2% (0.4%), undershooting estimates. Lower energy prices cooled the print. The trimmed mean, however, climbed to 3.6% y/y…
Canadian May inflation was hotter than estimates, but the underlying inflation picture remains much more muted. Headline CPI rose to 3.2% from 2.8%, moving above the Bank of Canada’s 1%-to-3% target range. The increase, however, was driven by energy, which…
We react to DM central bank meetings this week and highlight the opportunities emerging across global fixed income and currency markets.
May US CPI was roughly in line with estimates and still shows no evidence of energy passing through to core inflation. Headline CPI rose 0.5% m/m, accelerating to 4.2% y/y from 3.8%. Core came in cooler than estimates at 0.2% m/m, down from 0.4% in April,…
Mexican inflation has eased back to the high end of the target range, but Banxico likely still has room to cut over a cyclical horizon. Some concern around core price pressures remains, and Banxico ended its two-year easing cycle last month. Our Emerging…
Our June BCA Views meeting concluded that the near-term case for staying overweight equities remains intact. The discussion centered on whether the Middle East conflict, sticky inflation, and a maturing AI capex cycle are enough to challenge that view. The…
A notable pattern is emerging globally: inflation remains above target, but it is coming in cooler than consensus expected. US inflation came in below estimates. The same pattern has appeared in European developed and emerging markets, including Switzerland…