Ashwin Shyam | BCA Research

FICC GeoMacro

Are You Ready For A “Super El Niño?”

The risk of a “super El Niño” represents a meaningful threat to agricultural markets. Wheat, cocoa, and palm oil appear particularly vulnerable to El Niño-related supply disruptions. A rise in food prices could also generate political — and potentially geopolitical — reverberations across frontier and emerging markets, where food prices are far more relevant than in developed economies.

Ashwin Shyam, Marko Papic 22 Jun 2026

FICC

On Hormuz’s LNG Disruption

The Iran war has damaged LNG production capacity and halted tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. We assess the conflict's impact on LNG markets over cyclical and structural horizons.

Ashwin Shyam, Roukaya Ibrahim 24 Apr 2026

FICC

Maduro’s Last Barrel

US intervention will likely force out Maduro from Venezuela and reopen the economy. This could increase Venezuelan crude production in the long run, a modestly bearish outcome for oil markets over cyclical and structural horizons.

Max Malakhveitchouk, Ashwin Shyam 24 Nov 2025

FICC GeoMacro

The Very Energy Hungry Artificial Intelligence

Renewables’ role in power-hungry data centers is overstated. Natural gas will fill clean electricity’s data center supply shortfall, particularly in the US and Europe.

Ashwin Shyam, Artem Sakhbiev, Roukaya Ibrahim, Marko Papic 02 Sep 2025

FICC

Lithium: Calm Before The Next Upsurge

Lithium prices have collapsed by nearly 90% from the late-2022 peak. How will lithium markets evolve from here?In this report, we explore the cyclical and structural outlook for supply, demand, and prices.We conclude that prices are likely to remain contained over the coming 12 to 18 months before facing upside pressure later this decade.

Ashwin Shyam, Roukaya Ibrahim 27 Mar 2025

FICC

Copper: Interplay Of Structural Tailwinds And Cyclical Headwinds

We expect a copper supply-demand deficit to emerge in 2026 and widen into the end of the decade. This will provide a tailwind for copper prices over a long-term horizon. That said, we believe a better opportunity to position for a structural uptrend in copper prices will arise over the coming six-to-nine months.

Roukaya Ibrahim, Ashwin Shyam 11 Nov 2024

FICC CoreMacro

Copper And The Energy Transition: A Premature Bet

The green energy transition will drive a surge in copper demand over a long-term horizon. However, a better entry point to get long will emerge after the next economic downturn begins.

Roukaya Ibrahim, Qingyun Xu, Ashwin Shyam 02 Jul 2024

China

FICC

Resilient Oil Demand, Tighter Supply

Strong growth in the US and large EMs ex-China will translate into higher oil demand in 2024 – 2025. With mostly unchanged oil supply, tighter markets will ensue. We’ve raised our 2024 average Brent forecast to $98/bbl, and expect $105/bbl in 2H24. In 2025, we expect Brent to average $110/bbl. Prices could easily move higher, if the US moves against one or all of the states enjoying US sanctions forbearance – Russia, Iran, Venezuela. If Brent trades through $110/bbl, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will release spare capacity.

Ashwin Shyam 18 Apr 2024

FICC

Risk Assessment Of Our Commodity Views

Our bullish gold, copper and oil calls have played out as expected, with gains of 14%, 11% and 16% since the beginning of the year. In this risk assessment of our views, we conclude the bull trends driving these markets higher remain intact. However, the risks of central-bank policy errors, resource nationalism and protectionism are rising. We are raising our gold and copper price targets to $2,500/oz (from $2,300/oz) and $5.00/lb (from $4.50/lb).

Ashwin Shyam 11 Apr 2024

FICC

Copper Poised For Breakout

Copper markets are fast approaching a price breakout, as Chinese smelters scramble to find ore to meet increasing refined-copper demand in the wake of a global manufacturing rebound. We are holding fast to our expectation of $4.50/lb (COMEX) this year. We remain long the XME ETF to retain exposure to copper miners and refiners, and the COMT ETF to retain exposure to commodity flat price and the copper backwardation we expect.

Ashwin Shyam 04 Apr 2024

Geopolitics