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Corporate Bonds

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Recession Required For More Curve Steepening

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Central Bank Rate Cuts: A Savior Or Forewarning?

The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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Fourth Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Soft Landing Or Quicksand?

After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession to start in the US within the next six months. Accordingly, we recommend that investors underweight stocks and overweight government bonds.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Recession Or Not, Spreads Have Little Room To Tighten
US investment grade and high yield spreads have tightened 22 and 75 bps since their August highs. Risk assets have cheered the outsized Fed rate cut as the narrative in markets aligns with the Fed’s conviction it can deliver a soft landing. Our US Bond…
Daily Insights
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Defaults Have Peaked, But Corporate Spreads Are Still Expensive

We update our corporate default rate model and consider the implications for corporate bond spreads.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Refinancing Needs Are A Eurozone High Yield Headwind
The pro-cyclical Eurozone economy is highly exposed to a global downturn, which we expect will materialize by early 2025. The ECB is behind the curve and we thus expect it to ease more aggressively than markets expect next year. A dovish surprise in 2025…
Daily Insights
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Cuts Are Coming, But At What Pace?

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
Euro Area Balance Sheet Health: Time to Call 911
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, an increase in borrowing costs will further weaken vulnerable corporate balance sheets. As suggested by their Corporate Health Monitors (CHMs), the health of High-Yield corporate balance sheets…
Daily Insights
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We Want No Credit

Turn negative on European credit. At current levels, spreads do not compensate for the risk of a recession materializing later this year or in early 2025.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Jeremie Peloso, Robert Timper
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Tracking Labor Market Momentum

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper

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