Developed Countries

This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror.

Measures of labor market utilization improved in December, ruling out a January cut and significantly reducing the odds of a March cut.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2026.

MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold.

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026.

Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026

The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates. 

We present our five key views for global fixed income markets in 2026. A year that will see the global easing cycle come to an end.

September’s weak consumer spending data challenge the K-shaped recovery narrative and suggest that spending will slow to match already-weak employment growth.