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Economy

Short term euro upside is limited despite a structural bull case, as fragile growth, easing ECB policy, and geopolitical risks cap further gains. EUR/USD broke above structural resistance in April amid optimism over German stimulus and US political…

In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies. 

1 How Tight Is The Labor Market? …
1 Chinese Equities: Between Hopes And Headwinds …
1 Consumer Sentiment Rebounds, But Fed Still Trapped by Sticky Expectations …

Provided that humanity can overcome the existential risks posed by AI, real incomes will rise. Although most workers will ultimately gain from the transition to an AI-dominated economy, the biggest winners will be those who control the land and the natural resources beneath it.

The S&P 500 has breached 6000 and may retest all-time highs, but we would not recommend chasing the rally. Risk assets have shrugged off recession fears, with stress indicators like the VIX, SKEW, and VVIX still subdued, signaling limited demand for…
Further labor market deterioration would trigger a shift to maximum underweight in equities. While soft indicators have markedly deteriorated, hard labor data remains relatively resilient, though it has clearly weakened. The labor market is still in…

The London Sino-US trade talks offered hope of de-escalation, but Chinese equities remain under pressure from deflationary headwinds and lack a clear macro catalyst to trend higher.

1 US: Cold CPI Is No Green Light For Cuts in June …