Economy
Chinese tourism will continue growing, but investors should be mindful not to overpay for Chinese tourism stocks by extrapolating their past double-digit revenue growth into the future.
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Food For Thought
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US: Hard And Soft Data Are Converging
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According to our fixed income strategists, the main drivers of rising global yields have been widening bond/OIS spreads and term premiums. Wider government bond/OIS spreads reflect increasing government bond supply (net of central bank purchases) among…
US: Hard And Soft Data Are Converging
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The gold-to-oil price ratio seems tactically overextended, but global macro drivers suggest it will rise further. The gold bull run is still relatively young and not yet stretched compared to rallies from the past 50 years. Importantly, ongoing…
The latest political developments in Argentina increase the odds of further liberalizing reforms and solidify the economy’s structural upside. First, the libertarian governing party came out on top in Buenos Aires’ legislative elections. While municipal…
We perform a decomposition of yields moves across six major developed government bond markets to get to the bottom of what’s been driving the global bond selloff of the past eight months.
President Trump’s signature bill is surprising to the upside with budget deficits, as predicted by our Geopolitical Strategists. Some form of the bill is guaranteed to pass, no matter how many tries it takes. The bill will cut taxes more than…
The rebound in UK retail sales and consumer confidence surprised to the upside, and suggests that the re-acceleration in inflation observed earlier this week may not be transitory. UK retail sales rose 1.2% m/m in April from 0.1% m/m, significantly…