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Emerging Markets

South Africa: The Coalition Government Honeymoon Is Over

The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
China: Expect Growth To Soften After Strong Q1 Seasonality
Outside of the real estate sector, Chinese activity was decent in January and February. Both industrial production and retail sales were slightly stronger than expected. The jobless rate ticked up to 5.4% while property investment was down -9.8%…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Understanding Trump's Foreign Policy

Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
A Crude Paradox: OPEC Hikes Despite China Slump
Our Commodities strategists assessed the outlook for oil as crude remains pulled between geopolitical and fundamentals forces. OPEC+’s decision to raise oil supply is driven more by geopolitics than economics. A sustained improvement in Chinese oil…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Key Takeaways From The National People’s Congress
Our China and Emerging Markets strategists assessed China’s outlook after the National People’s Congress concluded last week. China’s latest fiscal stimulus is only marginally larger than last year’s, with a combined credit and fiscal impulse of 3.8% of…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
China’s Deflationary Pressures Remain Strong
China’s February consumer prices fell 0.7% y/y after expanding on an annual basis in January. Producer price deflation stood at -2.2% y/y, roughly unchanged from a month prior. China’s first quarter data is heavily influenced by seasonality, as the shifting…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Colombia: Bet Against Market Optimism
Our Emerging Markets strategists assessed Colombian assets after a significant rally. Colombia faces deep-rooted macroeconomic challenges that will not be easily reversed by a right-wing government in 2026. Public debt is on an unsustainable path, with…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Colombia: Bet Against Market Optimism

Colombian financial markets have rallied on the expectation that a right-wing government will be elected in 2026. We take a contrarian bearish stance on the nation's financial markets. Colombia is suffering from two structural macro issues – unsustainable public debt and plunging energy exports – that will not be easily solved by a conservative administration in 2026. Continue underweighting Colombia within EM equity and fixed-income portfolios, continue shorting the COP versus the USD and the CLP, and bet on yield curve steepening.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Juan Egana
Recession Risk Is Back

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
China: Caixin PMIs Point To Low Growth As National People’s Congress Begins
China’s February Caixin PMIs showed growth remains tepid. The composite ticked up to 51.5 from 51.1. Services are still showing a very faint expansion at 51.4, with manufacturing ticking up to 50.8. The message from the official NBS PMIs was similar.…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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