Equities
One key takeaway from Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference is the Fed’s unshaken conviction that it can avoid a recession. A risk-on mood dominated markets on Thursday, with the S&P 500 breaching new all-time highs while the 10-year Treasury yield rose…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy services, most carry investors have covered their positions. Away from day-to-day noise, the longer-term trajectory of yen exchange rates will be driven by fundamentals. …
Stress among lower-income households is often cited as an early indication of deteriorating aggregate consumer fundamentals. The data indeed suggests that this cohort’s cash holdings are depleting. However, the Fed’s quarterly estimates of household wealth…
Despite the recent correction, US equity leadership remains intact. The MSCI US index has outperformed global markets by 3.8% in 2024YTD. A 7.8% expansion in forward earnings drove the MSCI US index’ 2024YTD gains which was higher than the increases in…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, seven surprises with non-negligible odds could tip the scale in favor of Republicans for the White House by November 5. One of them is a war between Israel and Iran. Iran is still highly likely to…
Stocks are a forward discounting mechanism and routinely top before recessions begin, even if they typically do not swoon until the recession has taken hold. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, if consumers were losing momentum and a…
Investors should de-risk tactically in expectation of shocks and surprises ahead of the US election and an uncertain aftermath. Democratic victory with a gridlocked Congress is our base case but would bring minor tax hikes and nuclear brinksmanship with Russia. A Republican single-party sweep offers huge tax cuts but also a global trade war. Recession looms regardless.
This Special Report examines the post-pandemic evolution of consumption growth, relative equity sector and subindustry performance and recent commentary from consumer-facing companies to assess the likelihood that softer spending among lower-income households will spread to middle- and upper-income households.
Investors are pricing in a soft landing in the US. Notably, we noted that pro-cyclical assets topped the performance ranking in August. At the same time, the S&P 500 is currently trading only 1% below its all-time highs. However, investors are…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation Strategy service, a common objection to buying Bitcoin raised by traditional investors is that it is too volatile. In the past it has been argued that this is irrelevant, however, this also turns out to be…