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Monetary

Don’t Put The Monetary Cart Before The Fiscal Horse

Jay Powell didn’t say much at this afternoon’s FOMC press conference, and monetary policy will continue to take a back seat to fiscal for the next few months.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Global Headwinds Still Weighing On European Growth
The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component missed estimates and…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Are We Nearing CAD Capitulation?
Until recently, Canada had been flying under the radar, yet it presents an interesting macro case. The Bank of Canada hiked rates in lockstep with the Fed, but it began cutting earlier due to a more fragile Canadian economy. Domestic and international…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
UK: Cooling Employment Will Contain Inflation
November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction in November. However,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Canada: Cool CPI, Heated Tariffs Rhetoric
The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Get Ready For Bessenomics
Our Emerging Markets strategists put together a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent on what economic policy would look like for the Trump 2.0 administration.  Secretary Bessent is expected…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
How Bessenomics Was Born

There is no better way to gauge the macro policies of the new US administration than being privy to President Donald Trump’s discussions with the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. While we do not have inside information, we have put the pieces of the puzzle together to help clients see the big picture. This report presents our take on a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Scott Bessent that led to the latter’s appointment as Treasury secretary.

BCA Special Reports, Emerging Markets Strategy, GeoMacro Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
US Rates: More On Value And Timing
Our US Bond Strategy team put out a Strategy Insight outlining the value they see in the Treasury market.  The recent rise in Treasury yields reflects increased inflation uncertainty and a higher term premium. Treasury yields now offer an attractive…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Is US Housing Finding A Bottom?
US December housing data was strong, with housing starts printing above estimates at 1.49m, an acceleration from an upwardly-revised 1.29m in November. Building permits also surprised positively at 1.483m, but still decreased from 1.493m a month prior. The…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
More On Value And Timing

We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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