Europe
Sweden's economy is sending an ominous signal. GDP contracted 0.8% m/m, dragging the three-month moving average to zero, with industrial output as the primary drag. As our European and FICC teams have noted, the Swedish industrial cycle has been slowing…
The September ZEW survey sent mixed signals, reinforcing our view that European growth momentum is unlikely to accelerate materially and supporting an overweight on Bunds. Euro area expectations fell to 25.8 from 31.4. In Germany, expectations missed…
Europe’s AI buildout is creating a new source of structural power demand. Our Chart Of The Week comes from our analyst Eugenia Pan, and shows why this trend is favoring utilities with reliable low-carbon power. Finland offers an early example. While its…
Our GeoMacro strategists think the AfD’s historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt is being overinterpreted, with national leadership still far away. The party fell short of a majority and will face constraints even at the state level. While the AfD has national…
Alternative for Germany’s election win in the state of Saxony-Anhalt is overrated.
Our European investment strategists see Poland's near-term growth story as still compelling, with accelerating EU investment supporting equity outperformance. Real GDP has more than doubled since accession in 2004, helped by export integration, EU…
After Hormuz, Germany faces another shipping chokepoint, at home this time. Water level at the Rhine's river’s most critical chokepoint, Kaub, has fallen to just 11cm, the lowest reading since the 1970s. Forecasters warn it could take weeks of sustained rain…
Our European and FX strategists see the Iranian war and resulting energy shock reversing Nordic fortunes, and favor Norway over Sweden. Sweden's recovery is stalling while Norway reaps a windfall from the same shock. Our colleagues note that Sweden's exposure…
Leading European indicators continue to point to flat growth despite recent data beating expectations. Energy volatility and supply-chain uncertainty are weighing on the outlook and will continue to do so despite this week’s de-escalation in the Middle East,…
Euro area inflation accelerated in July, but it is too early to conclude that energy pressures are spreading across the broader price basket. Headline HICP rose to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% in June, while core inflation increased to 2.5% from 2.4%. Services…