Precious Metals
Gold and goldminers have corrected 25% from January highs. With our commodity team bullish gold, we are getting long GDX. Goldminers offer a gold-linked hedge against macro outcomes that would likely be damaging for equities, while improvements in profitability, capital discipline, and balance-sheet quality make the sector attractive in its own right, and it is largely independent of AI risk.
In this Special Report we argue that the worst of gold's downturn is likely behind us. Real rates and the dollar — which have reasserted themselves as gold's primary drivers — are set to shift from headwinds to tailwinds for the metal.
Higher oil prices threaten the global economy, warranting an underweight stance on equities. Over the long haul, industrial metals will fare better than crude.
This report flags near-term risks for gold. Yet we remain optimistic about the prospects for its long-term bull market.
Sell America? No. The GeoMacro trade is Buy RoW! Left-tail risks are easing because the US isn’t collapsing. That argues for less enthusiasm for safe havens, not selling US assets. The S&P 500 can perform while remaining underweight the US – it happened in 2025 and will happen again.
The metals mania is fueling extreme volatility.
In particular, the price of copper has become detached from fundamentals and is vulnerable to the downside.
The precious metal bonanza has not resolved the South African economy’s plight. Nor did it improve its public debt sustainability issues. Investors should brace for a reversal in South African stocks, bonds, and the currency.
After silver's parabolic surge, we assess the rally's vulnerability by examining its weakest links. We conclude that silver is ripe for a pullback.
This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.
Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day).
And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.