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Marko Papic

Chief Investment Strategist & Head of GeoMacro

Marko Papic translates geopolitical and macroeconomic trends into actionable investment implications through a framework he calls GeoMacro. Marko leads the firm’s premier…
Marko Papic
  • GeoMacro

    The Houthis Are Irrelevant

    The Strait of Hormuz is a unique geographical feature. Other than the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits that allow passage between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea (via the Sea of Marmara), there are very few other such, economically valuable, choke points. What many armchair geopolitical strategists consider “critical” naval routes – Strait of Malacca, Panama Canal, Suez – are really just pathways of convenience. “Nice to haves” – in that they significantly reduce sailing times – as opposed to the “must have” that is Hormuz.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Coloring Increasingly Outside The Lines

    In our last update on the Iran-US conflict, we noted that both sides in the conflict (all three, if we include Israel) were “coloring inside the lines.” By that we meant that they were abiding by the “red lines” of kinetic activity established in the heat of the first iteration of the Iran conflict. Specifically, we noted that investors should watch carefully for any sign that attacks were spreading beyond military facilities.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro CoreMacro Portfolio

    Bull/Bear Debate: Buy Dips Or Sell Strength In 2H2026?

    BCA's bull/bear debate webcast, held on July 13, 2026 (replay here) and moderated by Chief Investment Strategist Marko Papic, pitted Peter Berezin and Arthur Budaghyan on the bearish side against Juan Correa and Noah Weisberger on the bullish side. This edited summary condenses, reorganizes by theme, and lightly paraphrases their remarks.

    Noah Weisberger, Marko Papic, Peter Berezin, Arthur Budaghyan, Juan Manuel Correa

  • GeoMacro

    Bitcoin: To Mine Or Not To Mine

    Bitcoin miners are transitioning from a pure crypto play to AI infrastructure landlords, offering investors exposure to both a crypto recovery and the surge in secular power demand driven by the AI capex buildout.

    Jose Yanes, Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Here, There, and Everywhere Report - July 2026

    We stick to the view that geopolitical risk has peaked. The US and Iran tensions will increase oil prices, but below a level that will matter for the market. With global liquidity ample, private sector leverage low, and inflation peaking, bears are holding onto an epic collapse of the AI capex to short stocks. Eventually, the capex cycle will end in tears. That much history teaches us. But not yet.

    Marko Papic

  • Bull/Bear Debate: Buy Dips or Sell Strength in 2H2026
    GeoMacro Portfolio Construction CoreMacro Equities
    Bull/Bear Debate: Buy Dips or Sell Strength in 2H2026
    Four strategists: two competing outlooks, zero house views, all from one firm that fosters truly independent thinking.
    Marko Papic, Juan Manuel Correa, Noah Weisberger, Arthur Budaghyan, Peter Berezin
    13 Jul 2026
    Tactical Risks & Opportunities Strategic Asset Allocation Global
  • GeoMacro

    Iran And The US: Painting Within The Lines

    The US and Iran have engaged in a dramatic increase in kinetic activity over the past several days. It all appears to have started on July 6-7, when Iran allegedly attacked several ships in the Strait of Hormuz, vessels that were using the US-recommended route closer to Oman. Following US strikes against Iran in retaliation for that incident – with the US military claiming to have struck 140 sites – Iran has retaliated against US military facilities across the Gulf region. According to media reporting and Iranian government sources themselves, Iran attacked Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and Oman on July 11-12.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Iran Sticks To Its Strategy

    Just as we declared that geopolitical risk has peaked for the year – in yesterday’s Alpha report – President Trump has declared the ceasefire with Iran over after repeated violations via strikes against three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. That is the life of an investment strategist. But the underlying dynamics continue to play out as we’ve described.

    Marko Papic

  • GeoMacro

    Sticking Out Our Neck

    We remain bullish on risk assets given that the Hormuz war has resolved itself and oil prices have declined by even more than we expected. In addition, the macro fundamentals are not flashing any red signs. That said, we remain skeptical that the AI revolution will continue without any hiccups. In fact, a price war may ensue once all the players realize they’re in the commodity – not tech – space.

    Marko Papic

  • FICC GeoMacro

    Are You Ready For A “Super El Niño?”

    The risk of a “super El Niño” represents a meaningful threat to agricultural markets. Wheat, cocoa, and palm oil appear particularly vulnerable to El Niño-related supply disruptions. A rise in food prices could also generate political — and potentially geopolitical — reverberations across frontier and emerging markets, where food prices are far more relevant than in developed economies.

    Ashwin Shyam, Marko Papic

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