Developed Countries
Will US-China Trade War Escalate To Real War?
China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus, it indicates they are planning something different, as China will encounter economic destabilization. The likelihood of a hybrid military pressure on Taiwan will rise.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2025.
The sharp drop in March’s NFIB survey reinforces our defensive asset allocation, as small business sentiment weakens amid rising policy uncertainty. We remain overweight government bonds and underweight risk assets, while tactically shorting the January 2026…
Our European strategists recommend staying defensive in the near term. Favor bonds over equities and defensives over cyclicals, as President Trump’s tariffs are set to push the Eurozone into recession by mid-2025. Industrial production, capital spending, and…
USD/CNY’s break above 7.3 signals more downside is in store for the yuan, supporting short high-beta FX and long CHF and JPY positions. The CNY has weakened in 2025 even as the US dollar has depreciated against most major currencies and gold. USD/CNY…
Countertrend buy triggers have been activated for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond.