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Policy

Game Theory For Trump's Agenda

Simple games allow us to model several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in 2025. We find that markets face an increase in volatility as Congress expands the budget, Trump implements tariffs on the world, China retaliates, and Taiwan tensions persist. A ceasefire in Ukraine is a marginally positive outcome for Europe, although it is not a long-term peace treaty. 

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Global Headwinds Still Weighing On European Growth
The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component missed estimates and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Lacking Conviction

Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
 

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
BoJ Hikes, Signals More To Come
The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 bps as expected to 0.50%, or a 17-year high. The BoJ is currently the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures.  Additionally, the BoJ signaled a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Understanding President Trump’s Trade Move
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of our European Investment Strategy service. Mathieu investigates why President Trump started his global trade offensive with an attack on Canada and Mexico, the US’ two closest…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Are We Nearing CAD Capitulation?
Until recently, Canada had been flying under the radar, yet it presents an interesting macro case. The Bank of Canada hiked rates in lockstep with the Fed, but it began cutting earlier due to a more fragile Canadian economy. Domestic and international…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
UK: Cooling Employment Will Contain Inflation
November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction in November. However,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Canada: Cool CPI, Heated Tariffs Rhetoric
The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Get Ready For Bessenomics
Our Emerging Markets strategists put together a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent on what economic policy would look like for the Trump 2.0 administration.  Secretary Bessent is expected…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
How Bessenomics Was Born

There is no better way to gauge the macro policies of the new US administration than being privy to President Donald Trump’s discussions with the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. While we do not have inside information, we have put the pieces of the puzzle together to help clients see the big picture. This report presents our take on a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Scott Bessent that led to the latter’s appointment as Treasury secretary.

BCA Special Reports, Emerging Markets Strategy, GeoMacro Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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