Australia
The RBA's tightening cycle is likely over, despite Governor Bullock's hawkish tone. The cash rate was left unchanged at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting, in line with consensus, after three hikes earlier this year. The decision was unanimous. Updated…
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, and favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios. The model is very positive on the US dollar, neutral on gold, constructive on copper, and very bullish on oil.
Australia's softer-than-expected Q2 inflation report reinforces the case for a RBA hold. While trimmed mean CPI, the RBA's preferred underlying measure, edged up to 3.6% y/y from 3.5%, it undershot consensus and the RBA's own forecast. The quarterly rate held…
Australia's June NAB Business Survey points to a cooling economy, reinforcing the case for an extended RBA pause. Business conditions held at +3 for a third consecutive month, while business confidence, the more forward-looking measure, rebounded from -14 to…
Australia's May data came in firmer than expected, but the RBA will stay on hold. Headline inflation eased to 4% y/y (-0.7% m/m) from 4.2% (0.4%), undershooting estimates. Lower energy prices cooled the print. The trimmed mean, however, climbed to 3.6% y/y…
The RBA held rates, and further tightening looks unlikely despite the hawkish rhetoric. The policy rate was left unchanged, as expected, after three consecutive hikes totaling 75 bps. The decision was unanimous. Still, Governor Bullock declined to rule out…
Australia's May NAB survey pointed to softer growth, with moderating price pressures reinforcing the case that the RBA's tightening cycle is over. Business conditions held steady at +3, firmly below the long-term average, after falling every month this year.…
In this screener report, we explore opportunities in: US copper beneficiaries; Australian Materials, Energy, and Industrial stocks; and US reinvestment-led Tech stocks.
Australian CPI remains hot, but growth risks will limit further RBA tightening. April headline inflation decelerated more than expected to 4.2% y/y (0.4% m/m) from 4.6% (1.1%), partly reflecting a government fuel tax cut. The trimmed mean ticked up to 3.4%…
Our GeoMacro strategists see Australia as the most geopolitically conflicted major economy in the world. Its security depends on the US, its export revenues on China, and its trade routes run through waters both powers contest. How that triple exposure…