Jonathan LaBerge | BCA Research

Essentials CoreMacro

“Warshspan?” The Potential Return Of 1990s-Era Monetary Policy

In Section II, Jonathan explores whether Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed Chair signals a return to Greenspan-era, rules-based monetary policy.

Jonathan LaBerge 28 May 2026

Essentials

An Ocean Apart

In Section I, Doug revisits the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for growth in Europe and the US. In Section II, Jonathan explores whether Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed Chair signals a return to Greenspan-era, rules-based monetary policy.

Doug Peta, Jonathan LaBerge 28 May 2026

A New Productivity Gauge

Q1 productivity data do not support the case for a broad, AI-driven productivity boom. We noted last week that US productivity growth in Q1 was lackluster. Our BCA Confirming Productivity Indicator, available on BCA’s new Artificial Intelligence Dashboard,…

Jonathan LaBerge 13 May 2026

Essentials

Humanoid Robots: Timeline, Impact, And Investability

In Section II, Jonathan examines the humanoid robot segment of the emerging physical AI landscape, concluding that humanoid robots are a potential but not yet imminent investment theme.

Jonathan LaBerge 26 Mar 2026

AI
Robotics

Essentials

Steering Portfolios Through The Strait Of Hormuz

In Section I, Doug argues that investors should maintain mildly defensive positioning while awaiting the restoration of normalized shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In Section II, Jonathan examines the humanoid robot segment of the emerging physical AI landscape, concluding that humanoid robots are a potential but not yet imminent investment theme.

Doug Peta, Jonathan LaBerge 26 Mar 2026

Essentials

Will The AI “Scaling Laws” Continue?

In Section II, Jonathan examines whether the AI “scaling laws” are likely to hold. They will over the near term, but cracks are already beginning to form in the narrative of ever-improving AI.

Jonathan LaBerge 29 Jan 2026

Essentials

Spirited Debate

In Section I, Doug highlights the risks to US consumption if job growth does not soon recover. The US economy has yet to pass its tipping point, however, arguing against defensive positioning for now. In Section II, Jonathan examines whether the AI “scaling laws” are likely to hold. They will over the near term, but cracks are already beginning to form in the narrative of ever-improving AI.

Doug Peta, Jonathan LaBerge 29 Jan 2026

Essentials

Is AI Increasing Productivity? Updating Our Checklist

In Section II, Jonathan updates the BCA Artificial Intelligence Productivity Checklist and concludes that the evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom is not convincing.

Jonathan LaBerge 19 Dec 2025

Essentials

The Central Theorem Of Macroeconomics

In Section I, Doug underscores that the US labor market remains weak, crimping the outlook for disposable income growth. It is too soon to decisively bet against the bull market, but downside risks remain quite elevated. In Section II, Jonathan updates the BCA Artificial Intelligence Productivity Checklist and concludes that the evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom is not convincing.

Doug Peta, Jonathan LaBerge 19 Dec 2025

Essentials CoreMacro

An AI Investment Framework For Long-Term Investors

In this report, we present an AI investment framework for long-term investors. We conclude that an “AI Winter” is likely to begin over the next one-to-three years. Investors should strategically favor value over growth stocks.

Jonathan LaBerge, James Thayer 03 Dec 2025

AI