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Developed Countries

Canada’s election outcome and macro backdrop support our neutral stance on CGBs and long CAD/USD structural positioning. Mark Carney’s Liberals retained power in Monday’s federal election and are likely to form a minority government. The campaign centered on…
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists recommend shifting exposure within Port Infrastructure to India as re-globalization reshapes trade flows. The US will remain a trade leader, but tensions with China and the reorganization of supply chains…
The April Conference Board survey adds to signs of labor market softening, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. The Consumer Confidence index fell for the fifth consecutive month to 86.0 from 92.9. Expectations plunged to their lowest since 2011.…

Cybersecurity is a strategic investment theme, which looks particularly interesting in light of the trade war and heightened geopolitical tensions. It is less exposed to tariffs than other industries and, if anything, benefits from geopolitical tensions as customers seek protection from international cyberattacks and cybercrime. The industry’s fundamentals are improving, while valuations are moderating. A recent pullback presents an attractive entry point into the theme. 

The collapse in soft data points to rising recession risks, but markets are still only priced for a mild slowdown, reinforcing our defensive positioning. As policy uncertainty and market volatility surged, consumers and businesses signaled plans to delay…
The April Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey adds to recent stagflationary signals, reinforcing our preference for gold over industrial commodities. The index plunged to -35.8 from -16.3 in March, with activity measures deteriorating and price pressures…
Our European Investment strategists maintain a defensive stance. Favor bunds as an emerging safe-haven complement to US Treasurys and a value tilt in equities. While the dollar and US fixed income remain the global anchor, EUR/USD bullishness has become…

Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation.

BCA’s House View recommends staying underweight stocks versus bonds, even in a stagflationary scenario. The US and global economies are likely to enter a recession this year unless tariffs are swiftly reversed or meaningful fiscal stimulus is enacted. The…

US Treasuries typically outperform both equities and global government bonds during downturns. Recent political shifts could lessen that outperformance this cycle, but we doubt it will disappear completely.