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Developed Countries

MacroQuant Model Update: Living Dangerously Near The Kink

The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet.


 
Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Do Growth Stocks Even Care About Macro?
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Strategist of our Emerging Markets and China Investment Strategy services. Arthur highlights an important dichotomy in the US stock-bond yield correlation. In the past 12 months, US growth stocks…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Canadian Stocks: Walking The Tightrope
Our colleagues from The Bank Credit Analyst revisited the outlook for Canadian stocks after they outperformed global ex-US stocks in late 2024. The outperformance was driven by financials and tech. While Canadian tech gains were stock-specific,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Tokyo CPI: Strong Price Pressures Remain
The January Tokyo CPI came in stronger than expected, with headline inflation accelerating to 3.4% y/y from 3.0%, and “core core” (ex. fresh food and energy) accelerating to 1.9% from 1.8%. The jobless rate also decreased 0.1% to 2.4% in…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US: Inflation And Wage Growth Cool
December PCE inflation was in line with expectations, with headline inflation at 0.3% m/m (2.6% y/y) and core at 0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y). The Q4 employment cost index also came in line with expectations at 0.9% q/q. Inflation is currently running below the Fed’s…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US Economic Roundup

Core PCE inflation came in soft this morning and is tracking well below the Fed’s 2025 forecast. We highlight three upside risks to inflation and preview next week’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
ECB: Steady As She Goes

The ECB cut its deposit rate to 2.75%, as was widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde did not provide any fireworks, but the Governing Council’s message was clear: Policy is restrictive, and inflation will fall further. As a result, if we combine our economic forecasts for the Eurozone with Frankfurt’s data dependency, we continue to expect the ECB’s deposit rate to settle below 2%. Consequently, German bond yields have downside, and the euro has yet to bottomed.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
2025 Global Inflation Outlook: Opportunities In Inflation-Linked Bonds
Our Global Fixed Income strategists assessed the risk of a second wave of inflation, and discussed the opportunities within the inflation-linked bond (ILB) market. Global disinflation remains on track, though energy prices and tariffs pose upside risks.…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US GDP: Keep An Eye On Consumption
Advanced Q4 US GDP missed estimates, slowing down to 2.3% quarterly annualized growth from 3.1%. The weakness was however driven by inventories. Consumer spending beat estimates and accelerated to 4.2% from 3.7% in Q3. Growth is still above trend as the US…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
ECB Cuts On Its Way To Neutral
The ECB cut by 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%. Despite avoiding committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track”, and did not push against current market pricing,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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