Economy
Preliminary nonfarm labor productivity for Q4 came in line with estimates, decreasing to 1.2% annualized growth from an upwardly-revised 2.3%. Unit labor costs growth was lower than expected, but still jumped to 3.0% from a downwardly revised 0.5% in…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that one of the Trump administration’s priority was lowering 10-year bond yields. Bessent’s 3/3/3 plan, boosting growth to 3% from deregulation, increasing US oil production by 3 mmb/d, and slashing the budget…
The Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.5%, with two members of the MPC voting to cut 50 bps instead. The BoE acknowledged “substantial progress on disinflation”, driven by a tight policy stance and stabilized inflation expectations. The dovish…
Following today’s Bank of England’s policy meeting, at which the policy rate was cut by 25 bps, we discuss our outlook for monetary policy in the UK. We expect the gradual easing to continue and discuss the investment implications for UK gilts and sterling.
The January ISM Services missed estimates, decreasing to 52.8 from 54.0 in December. The move was driven by activity components, while employment and suppliers’ delivery times increased. Additionally, the prices paid measure decreased, reversing the…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.
This is a follow-up report on Bessenomics – the policy mix that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to pursue. The direction of US and global financial markets depends on the amount of fiscal tightening required to bring down US interest rates. Can the Trump administration cut fiscal spending just enough to bring down US bond yields but not cause a recession?
December job openings missed estimates, decreasing to 7.6m from an upwardly revised 8.2m in November. Quits, hires, but also layoffs all ticked up marginally, leaving the general “slowing-but-not-collapsing” direction of the labor market…
While the US dollar has outperformed every single DM currency in the past few months, the only monetary asset it did not outperform is gold. The greenback is up between 5-10% against DM currencies since September of last year, but down by more than 8% vs.…